Attrition

Merriam Webster defines attrition as:

1 [Middle English attricioun, from Medieval Latin attrition-, attritio, from Latin] : sorrow for one's sins that arises from a motive other than that of the love of God
2: the act of rubbing together : friction; also : the act of wearing or grinding down by friction
3: the act of weakening or exhausting by constant harassment, abuse, or attack
4: a reduction in numbers usually as a result of resignation, retirement, or death

Many of us who watch college football religiously on Saturday afternoons are quite familiar with the term.  Announcers love to throw it around when a team has had a significant number of injuries or something that causes it to not be full strength during the game. Can't you just hear Brent Musburger spouting his hyperbole?

When a team loses players during a game it's significant. And it can be a predictor of whether a team emerges victorious.  But I suspect the more significant definition of attrition is #4: the long term effect of choosing an incoming group of student athletes.  I believe that one of the most powerful predictors of long term success is how well a program can retain the student athletes it recruits. You can't "coach 'em up" if they aren't there. Some would argue the loss of certain individuals, whether it is Richie Incognito or Jonathan Martin, can actually be a good thing for a program. I agree with that sentiment, but it is hard to argue with the challenge that the University of Southern California or the University of Florida have had this season.

This seems like an appropriate time for a quote from LSU wordsmith Coach Les Miles:

"Anytime you don't have a guy that was a starter and had a lot of experience and ability, from that point forward, you make an adjustment, you hope to get better in some way, I don't know if that's necessarily the case. I've always looked at the things we can do, not the things we can't I think we've got plenty. (The effect is) nothing so drastically that 'we can't do this, we can't do that.'" (source)

Coaches have a mantra: "next man up."  But it's difficult to argue that attrition is a real threat to the long term success of the program. For example, because of NCAA sanctions the Trojans and Coach Orgeron are working with fewer scholarship athletes in 2013. The impact this has on the team is certainly evident in definition #3. If one player goes down it is more difficult to find a replacement because there are simply fewer players to choose from.  But long term, the Trojans may have an even greater challenge because the loss of players can compound the problem for multiple years. All programs lose players due to grades, homesickness, etc.   But the question is: Is there a level of attrition that a program can endure and at what point is it pushed "over the edge", causing serious long-term problems?  Florida fans could certainly argue that the state Urban Meyer left the program in is having a huge impact on how the Gators are doing today.  But is that a rational argument based on evidence or simply an apologetic tone because the Gators have slipped to mediocrity?

We want to know.  So we're starting to examine attrition (definition #4) and the possible impact that it has on a program.  We're very interested in what is an expected level of attrition and if there is a long term impact if a program routinely crosses that threshold. Attrition is just the first step in understanding those variables that have an effect on a program, but presence comes before participation which comes before performance.

So we are going to work slowly across the landscape of college football in developing our understanding of attrition. We will look at attrition team-by-team, including summaries as we go along.  Is there a correlation between attrition rate and wins? Hopefully we'll be able to tell you.