B1G 2009 Signees

As signing day 2014 approaches we will take some time to revisit the class of 2009 and try to understand what successes and challenges each class faced over the last 5 years. We begin our analysis in the BIG 10 - which at the time had 11 members (missing Nebraska). This review includes Nebraska because they have been a member for the last 3 years, but keep in mind the Huskers signing class was originally part of the BIG 12.

From Signing Day to the 2009 Season

The table below includes the number of student athletes that signed LOIs in the spring of 2008 ( ); and the number of signees that were on the roster in 2009. [Keep in mind these are numbers and names provided by Rivals. Each recruiting service treats each category of student athlete differently. For example; they may or may not include transfers in their numbers, may or may not include Junior College or Community College athletes, etc.]

Illinois (20) 19
Indiana (19) 19
Iowa (20) 18
Michigan (22) 22
Michigan State (23) 22
Minnesota (20) 17
Nebraska (20) 20
Northwestern (18) 18
Ohio State (25) 24
Penn State (27) 24
Purdue (20) 19
Wisconsin (21) 20

As you can see from the list above, 8 of the 12 teams lost at least one member of their signing class between the spring signing period and their first season on campus. Some of those recruits showed up the following season, some greyshirted, and others went elsewhere (a junior or community college or some other place because of grades, etc.) and never showed back up at the school they originally signed with in the spring of 2008.

Looking back at different schools and conferences it is not unusual to lose a signee, but it seems very unusual to lose 3 (as Penn State and Minnesota both did in 2009). Just 4 schools (Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska, and Northwestern) had their entire signing class on campus the following fall. According to Rivals, Minnesota lost two 3 star recruits and one 4 star recruit (running back Hasan Lipscomb of Cypress Ridge HS in Houston, TX). None of those athletes ever reported to Minnesota. The Nittany Lions lost two 4 star recruits and one 3 star, but one of the 4 stars (linebacker Glenn Carson was on the roster for the 2010 season).

Keeping a class together over 4 years

In an ideal world, a college football coach would love to recruit a group of student athletes that performed well the moment they stepped on campus, did well in class, stayed out of trouble, were model student athletes and were willing to spend at least 4 years on campus before pursuing their NFL dreams.

As we know that never happens (it happens for individuals, but is virtually nonexistent as an entire class). We have variance in the group of young men that sign. Whether they "fit in", are able to perform and challenge for a spot on the field, or excel in the classroom varies from individual to individual. Still it is arguable that keeping a majority of a signing class together and having them contribute is important to the long term success of the team. Before we explore the relationship between conference wins and attrition - it is important to take a look at which schools had the best retention.

The list below includes the number of student athletes that signed LOIs in 2008 ( ); the number and percentage that were still on the roster 4 years later.

1. Northwestern (18) 15 83%
2. Wisconsin (21) 16 76%
3. Michigan State (23) 17 74%
4. Purdue (20) 14 70%
5. Penn State (27) 18 67%
6. Michigan (22) 14 64%
7. Ohio State (25) 14 56%
8. Nebraska (20) 11 55%
9. Indiana (19) 10 53%
10. Illinois (20) 10 50%
11. Iowa (20) 10 50%
12. Minnesota (20) 10 50%

As you can see from the chart below - the rate of attrition varies by program. It is impressive that Coach Pat Fitzgerald and his staff at Northwestern held a relatively small class together over the life of that classes eligibility. At this point it is unknown if 83% is very impressive, whether 50% is typical, or something else. We will look at the other BCS conferences to get a better understanding if the attrition rates in the B1G is typical.











It is important to note that presence doesn't equal either participation or performance. These are simply athletes that were present (listed on the team roster) during their "eligibility" as a college student athlete. To understand the type of impact those student athletes may or may not have had on their programs it is important to dive a little deeper - we will attempt to do that in a future post.

Context

In an attempt to give some context as we finish this post - the list provided below is the Rivals "Team Rankings" based on those 2008 signees. It is assumed that this list was constructed immediately following signing day 2009. The rank to the left is the team's national rank ... did that ranking equate conference wins from 2009-2012/2013? We will explore that further in another post.

3. Ohio State
8. Michigan
17. Michigan State
24. Penn State
28. Nebraska
35. Illinois
39. Minnesota
43. Wisconsin
58. Northwestern
59. Indiana
63. Iowa
75. Purdue

B1G 2013 All Conference Teams - the QBs

In early December 2013 the B1G coaches and media decided their All-Conference teams for the 2013 season. The following is a look at each player selected, their high school "rank" (grade, star, etc.) and their "ranking" relative to other players of the same position.

B1G First Team QB

Braxton Miler, JR - Ohio State
2011 signee out of Wayne HS in Huber Heights, OH


Photo Credit: Joshua S. Kelly - USA Today Sports

It is not surprising that Buckeye QB Braxton Miller garnered the first team honors from both the media and coaches. Miller had a superb season both through the air and on the ground. Miller threw for more than 2000 yards and 24 touchdowns in 12 games. According to cfbstats.com, Miller was 5th in the B1G in conference passing yards (1652 yds), but easily outdistanced every other QB in passing touchdowns during conference play with 20. He also finished with 951 yards on the ground in conference games - making him the top QB and 4th overall in the B1G.

Rivals #1 DT (Dual-threat) QB - 4 star
Scout #2 QB - 5 star
247sports #2 DT QB - 5 star
ESPN #4 QB - 4 star

B1G Second Team QB

Nathan Scheelhaase, SR - Illinois - Media
(Coaches - Honorable Mention)
2009 signee out of Rockhurst HS in Kansas City, MO




Scheelhaase's selection is not surprising given his presence in the Illini backfield the last 4+ years (playing in 48 games). Scheelhaase finished his career atop the Illinois record books with 10,634 career yards — 8,568 passing, 2,066 rushing. Despite the struggles faced by the mighty Illini this season, Scheelhaase has consistently produced for the Illini offense. The one knock on Scheelhaase this season was his passing in B1G conference games. He finished with a mediocre 127.26 passer rating in B1G games and struggled against the better B1G defenses.

Rivals #7 DT QB - 4 star
Scout #20 QB - 4 star
247sports #9 DT QB - 4 star
ESPN #37 QB

Connor Cook, SO - Michigan State - Coaches
(Media - Honorable Mention)
2011 signee out of Walsh Jesuit HS in Cuyahoga Falls, OH




Photo Credit: Richard Mackson - USA Today Sports

Cook, on the other hand, seemingly came out of nowhere in his first season as a starter to lead the Spartans to a top 5 ranking and Rose Bowl Champions. Cook finished 4th in the B1G in passing yards with 2,755 and 22 touchdowns (vs. just 6 Interceptions). Additionally, Cook finished 3rd in B1G passing yards (2012 yards) and passer rating (139.36).

Rivals #13 PRO QB - 3 star
Scout #82 QB - 2 star
247sports #34 PRO QB - 3 star
ESPN #57 QB - 3 star

B1G Honorable Mention QB

Christian Hackenberg, FR - Penn State - Coaches/Media
2013 signee out of Fork Union Military Academy in Fork Union, VA

Rivals #2 PRO QB - 5 star
Scout #2 QB - 5 star
247sports #2 PRO QB - 5 star
ESPN #1 PRO QB - 4 star

Devin Gardner, JR - Michigan - Media
2010 signee out of Inkster HS in Detroit, MI

Rivals #1 DT QB - 4 star
Scout #5 QB - 5 star
247sports #2 DT QB - 4 star
ESPN #5 QB - 4 star

Joel Stave, SO - Wisconsin - Media
2011 signee out of Whitnall HS in Whitnall, WI

Rivals Unranked QB - 2 star
Scout #111 QB - 2 star
247sports Unranked QB
ESPN #172 QB

Miller and Hackenberg are far and away the most highly recruited QB's on any of the rosters in the B1G this past season. The more interesting thing to note is the sheer number of 4 and 5 star student athletes recruited between 2009 and 2013 by B1G schools (and the number that are still on the roster in 2013). The 23 QBs listed below were just as highly touted coming out of high school as any of the QBs listed above (with the possible exception of Miller and Hackenberg). Where are they now?

Andrew Maxwell (2009, MSU);
Kevin Newsome (2009, PSU);
Denard Robinson (2009, Michigan);
Tate Forcier (2009, Michigan);
Cody Green (2009, Nebraska);
Paul Jones (2010, PSU);
Taylor Graham (2010, OSU);
Joe Boisture (2010, MSU);
Chandler Whitmer (2010, Illinois);
Robert Bolden (2010; PSU);
Brion Carnes (2010; Nebraska);
Jamal Turner (2011; Nebraska);
Bubba Starling (2011; Nebraska);
Tommy Armstrong (2012; Nebraska);
Bart Houston (2012; Wisconsin);
Robert Gregory (2012; Purdue);
Shane Morris (2013; Michigan);
Aaron Bailey (2013; Illinois);
JT Barrett (2013; OSU);
Danny Etling (2013; Purdue);
Damion Terry (2013; MSU);
Matthew Alviti (2013; Northwestern);
Johnny Stanton (2013; Nebraska);

Attrition

Merriam Webster defines attrition as:

1 [Middle English attricioun, from Medieval Latin attrition-, attritio, from Latin] : sorrow for one's sins that arises from a motive other than that of the love of God
2: the act of rubbing together : friction; also : the act of wearing or grinding down by friction
3: the act of weakening or exhausting by constant harassment, abuse, or attack
4: a reduction in numbers usually as a result of resignation, retirement, or death

Many of us who watch college football religiously on Saturday afternoons are quite familiar with the term.  Announcers love to throw it around when a team has had a significant number of injuries or something that causes it to not be full strength during the game. Can't you just hear Brent Musburger spouting his hyperbole?

When a team loses players during a game it's significant. And it can be a predictor of whether a team emerges victorious.  But I suspect the more significant definition of attrition is #4: the long term effect of choosing an incoming group of student athletes.  I believe that one of the most powerful predictors of long term success is how well a program can retain the student athletes it recruits. You can't "coach 'em up" if they aren't there. Some would argue the loss of certain individuals, whether it is Richie Incognito or Jonathan Martin, can actually be a good thing for a program. I agree with that sentiment, but it is hard to argue with the challenge that the University of Southern California or the University of Florida have had this season.

This seems like an appropriate time for a quote from LSU wordsmith Coach Les Miles:

"Anytime you don't have a guy that was a starter and had a lot of experience and ability, from that point forward, you make an adjustment, you hope to get better in some way, I don't know if that's necessarily the case. I've always looked at the things we can do, not the things we can't I think we've got plenty. (The effect is) nothing so drastically that 'we can't do this, we can't do that.'" (source)

Coaches have a mantra: "next man up."  But it's difficult to argue that attrition is a real threat to the long term success of the program. For example, because of NCAA sanctions the Trojans and Coach Orgeron are working with fewer scholarship athletes in 2013. The impact this has on the team is certainly evident in definition #3. If one player goes down it is more difficult to find a replacement because there are simply fewer players to choose from.  But long term, the Trojans may have an even greater challenge because the loss of players can compound the problem for multiple years. All programs lose players due to grades, homesickness, etc.   But the question is: Is there a level of attrition that a program can endure and at what point is it pushed "over the edge", causing serious long-term problems?  Florida fans could certainly argue that the state Urban Meyer left the program in is having a huge impact on how the Gators are doing today.  But is that a rational argument based on evidence or simply an apologetic tone because the Gators have slipped to mediocrity?

We want to know.  So we're starting to examine attrition (definition #4) and the possible impact that it has on a program.  We're very interested in what is an expected level of attrition and if there is a long term impact if a program routinely crosses that threshold. Attrition is just the first step in understanding those variables that have an effect on a program, but presence comes before participation which comes before performance.

So we are going to work slowly across the landscape of college football in developing our understanding of attrition. We will look at attrition team-by-team, including summaries as we go along.  Is there a correlation between attrition rate and wins? Hopefully we'll be able to tell you.

2013 Top True Frosh QB

True Freshman QBs rarely see the field in their first year on campus - much less lead their team through the majority of the season as the starting QB. Starting as a freshman doesn't guarantee success, but it is hard to argue against having had the experience when they return for a second season.

We have identified the top 5 (statistically) true frosh QBs through November 19, 2013. Which will end up with the best numbers or leading his team to the best record only time will tell. At this point who would be your frontrunner heading into the end of the season?

We identify the QBs at the bottom of the post. We believe that names (both player and school names play a large part in our bias) so we have first introduced these QBs without their names or schools.

QB #1 Has played in 8 games completing 187 of his 303 passes (61.7%) for 2188 yards. He has thrown for 15 TDs and has 7 INTs. He has a passer rating of 134.10 against a Strength of Schedule that is ranked 55th according to Jeff Sagarin.

QB #2 Has played in 9 games completing 190 of his 313 passes (60.7%) for 2366 yards. He has thrown for 20 TDs and has 6 INTs. He has a passer rating of 141.46 against a Strength of Schedule that is ranked 67th according to Jeff Sagarin.

QB #3 Has played in 7 games and has completed 86 of his 135 passes (63.7%) for 1026 yards. He has thrown for 7 TDs and has 4 INTs. He has a passer rating of 138.72 against a Strength of Schedule that is ranked 164th according to Jeff Sagarin.

QB #4 Has played in 10 games completing 275 of his 459 passes (59.9%) for 2809 yards. He has thrown for 15 TDs and has 10 INTs. He has a passer rating of 117.74 against a Strength of Schedule that is ranked 8th according to Jeff Sagarin.

QB #5 Has played in 10 games completing 194 of his 329 passes (59.0%) for 2399 yards. He has thrown for 14 TDs and has 9 INTs. He has a passer rating of 128.79 against a Strength of Schedule that is ranked 61st according to Jeff Sagarin.


If we had a vote ...


Photo Credit: Jamie Rhodes - USA Today Sports

We would choose Houston Cougar QB John O'Korn (#2 above). We like O'Korn's TD to INT ratio and his 141.46 passer rating is the best of the 5 true freshmen highlighted here.

QB #1 - Davis Webb - Texas Tech
QB #2 - John O'Korn - Houston
QB #3 - Tyler Jones - Texas State
QB #4 - Jared Goff - Cal
QB #5 - Christian Hackenberg - Penn State

ACC's Top Freshman WR

Who is the top Freshman Receiver in the #ACC?




Photo credit: Steven Murphy/SPN - Stacy Coley & Charles LeClaire/USA Today - Tyler Boyd

Miami's Stacy Coley
ESPN #4 WR 4*
Rivals #13 WR 4*
Scout #8 WR 4*
247Sports #4 WR 4*
Coley has 11 receptions in 5 ACC games for a total of 264 yds & 1 receiving TD.

Pittsburgh's Tyler Boyd
ESPN #16 ATH 4*
Rivals #12 WR 4*
Scout #12 S 4*
247Sports #23 WR 4*
Boyd has 30 receptions in 5 ACC games for 429 receiving yards & 4 TDs.

At this point in the season - Coley gets more publicity because the Canes are a top 25 team and have been on more of a roll in 2013. It is hard to argue that (at least statistically) Boyd (and Devin Street) have been the cogs in the wheel for the Panthers offense and Boyd is the most dominant freshman WR in the ACC this season.

Where are the other top ACC WR freshman recruits from 2013 (ESPN rankings):
#18 Isaiah Jones (FSU) - 3 ACC games - 2 rec for 31 yds
#20 Kyrin Priester (Clemson) - Not on the Roster
#24 Johnathan Howard (North Carolina) - 5 ACC games - 14 rec for 165 yds & 2 TD
#27 Mike Williams (Clemson) - 6 ACC games - 11 rec for 174 yds & 1 TD